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Papers on “inflation monetary policy central bank”

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  1. Inflation and economic growth: the search for a compromise for the Central Bank's monetary policy

    V. Mishchenko, S. Naumenkova, S. Mishchenko, et al. · 2018 · Banks and Bank Systems · 46 cites

    The article analyzes the influence of inflation on economic growth and substantiates the main directions of increasing the effectiveness of the central bank's anti-inflation policy. In order to determine the limit of inflation, the excess of which has a negative impact on the economic growth, the relationship is analyzed between the inflation rate and the real GDP growth rate on the basis of IMF statistics using the example of 158 countries. It was determined that in 2010–2017, in the global economy, the 6.0% inflation was the marginal value of the inflation rate, beyond which the economic growth rate declined or slowed down. Given the inverse relationship between the inflation rate and the

  2. Inflation, oil price volatility and monetary policy

    Paúl Castillo, Carlos Montoro, Vicente Tuesta · 2020 · Journal of Macroeconomics · 41 cites

    In a fully micro-founded New Keynesian framework, we characterize analytically the relation between average inflation and oil price volatility by solving the rational expectations equilibrium of the model up to second order of accuracy. Higher oil price volatility induces higher levels of average inflation. We also show that when oil has low substitutability and the central bank responds to output fluctuations, oil price volatility matters for the level of average inflation. The model shows that when oil price volatility increases, average inflation increases whereas average output falls: this implies a trade-off also between average inflation and that of output. The analytical solution furt

  3. Monetary policy & anchored expectations—An endogenous gain learning model

    Laura Gáti · 2023 · Journal of Monetary Economics · 37 cites

    This paper analyzes monetary policy in a model with a potential unanchoring of inflation expectations. The degree of unanchoring is given by how sensitively the public’s long-run inflation expectations respond to inflation surprises. I find that optimal policy moves the interest rate aggressively when expectations unanchor, allowing the central bank to accommodate inflation fluctuations when expectations are well-anchored. Furthermore, I estimate the model-implied relationship that determines the extent of unanchoring. The data suggest that the expectations process is nonlinear and asymmetric: expectations respond more sensitively to large or downside surprises than to smaller or upside ones

  4. Monetary Policy Rules Under Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations

    Sophocles N. Brissimis, Nicholas S. Magginas · 2017 · SSRN Electronic Journal · 36 cites

    This paper evaluates the role of inflation-forecast heterogeneity in US monetary policy making. The deviation between private and central bank inflation forecasts is identified as a factor increasing inflation persistence and thus calling for a policy reaction. An optimal policy rule is derived by the minimization under discretion of a standard central bank loss function subject to a Phillips curve, modified to include the forecast deviation, and a forward-looking aggregate demand equation. This rule, which itself includes the forecast deviation as an additional argument, is estimated for the period 1974-1998, covering the Chairmanships of Arthur Burns, Paul Volcker and Alan Greenspan, by us

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