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Research papers on Wildfires and climate change

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  1. A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests

    C. Allen, A. Macalady, Haroun Chenchouni, et al. · 2010 · Forest Ecology and Management · 7,792 citations

    Greenhouse gas emissions have significantly altered global climate, and will continue to do so in the future. Increases in the frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought and heat stress associated with climate change could fundamentally alter the composition, structure, and biogeography of forests in many regions. Of particular concern are potential increases in tree mortality associated with climate-induced physiological stress and interactions with other climate-mediated processes such as insect outbreaks and wildfire. Despite this risk, existing projections of tree mortality are based on models that lack functionally realistic mortality mechanisms, and there has been no attempt to tr

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  2. Climate Change 2014 - Synthesis Report

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change · 2015 · 5,323 citations

    The Synthesis Report (SYR) distils and integrates the findings of the three Working Group contributions to the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the most comprehensive assessment of climate change undertaken thus far by the IPCC: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis; Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability; and Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. The SYR also incorporates the findings of two Special Reports on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (2011) and on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (2011).

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  3. Changes in precipitation with climate change

    Kevin E. Trenberth · 2010 · Climate Research · 3,869 citations

    There is a direct influence of global warming on precipitation. Increased heating leads to greater evaporation and thus surface drying, thereby increasing the intensity and duration of drought. However, the water holding capacity of air increases by about 7% per 1C warming, which leads to increased water vapor in the atmosphere. Hence, storms, whether individual thunderstorms, extratropical rain or snow storms, or tropical cyclones, supplied with increased moisture, produce more intense precipitation events. Such events are observed to be widely occurring, even where total precipitation is decreasing: 'it never rains but it pours!' This increases the risk of flooding. The atmospheric and sur

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  4. IPCC, 2023: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.

    Katherine Calvin, Dipak Dasgupta, Gerhard Krinner, et al. · 2023 · 3,581 citations

    The Synthesis Report (SYR) is a stand-alone synthesis of the most policy-relevant evidence from the scientific, technical, and socio-economic literature assessed in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The SYR distils and integrates the main findings of the three reports of the Working Groups of the IPCC during the AR6, and the three AR6 Special Reports into a concise document. It consists of a Summary for Policymakers and a longer report.

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  5. Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013

    W. Matt Jolly, Mark A. Cochrane, Patrick H. Freeborn, et al. · 2015 · Nature Communications · 2,198 citations

    Climate strongly influences global wildfire activity, and recent wildfire surges may signal fire weather-induced pyrogeographic shifts. Here we use three daily global climate data sets and three fire danger indices to develop a simple annual metric of fire weather season length, and map spatio-temporal trends from 1979 to 2013. We show that fire weather seasons have lengthened across 29.6 million km(2) (25.3%) of the Earth's vegetated surface, resulting in an 18.7% increase in global mean fire weather season length. We also show a doubling (108.1% increase) of global burnable area affected by long fire weather seasons (>1.0 σ above the historical mean) and an increased global frequency of lo

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  7. Critical Review of Health Impacts of Wildfire Smoke Exposure

    Colleen E. Reid, Michael Bräuer, Fay H. Johnston, et al. · 2016 · Environmental Health Perspectives · 1,447 citations

    BACKGROUND: Wildfire activity is predicted to increase in many parts of the world due to changes in temperature and precipitation patterns from global climate change. Wildfire smoke contains numerous hazardous air pollutants and many studies have documented population health effects from this exposure. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the evidence of health effects from exposure to wildfire smoke and to identify susceptible populations. METHODS: We reviewed the scientific literature for studies of wildfire smoke exposure on mortality and on respiratory, cardiovascular, mental, and perinatal health. Within those reviewed papers deemed to have minimal risk of bias, we assessed the coherence and

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  8. Increasing western US forest wildfire activity: sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring

    A. L. Westerling · 2016 · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · 1,369 citations

    Prior work shows western US forest wildfire activity increased abruptly in the mid-1980s. Large forest wildfires and areas burned in them have continued to increase over recent decades, with most of the increase in lightning-ignited fires. Northern US Rockies forests dominated early increases in wildfire activity, and still contributed 50% of the increase in large fires over the last decade. However, the percentage growth in wildfire activity in Pacific northwestern and southwestern US forests has rapidly increased over the last two decades. Wildfire numbers and burned area are also increasing in non-forest vegetation types. Wildfire activity appears strongly associated with warming and earl

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  9. Observed Impacts of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Wildfire in California

    Park Williams, John T. Abatzoglou, Alexander Gershunov, et al. · 2019 · Earth s Future · 1,112 citations

    Abstract Recent fire seasons have fueled intense speculation regarding the effect of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire in western North America and especially in California. During 1972–2018, California experienced a fivefold increase in annual burned area, mainly due to more than an eightfold increase in summer forest‐fire extent. Increased summer forest‐fire area very likely occurred due to increased atmospheric aridity caused by warming. Since the early 1970s, warm‐season days warmed by approximately 1.4 °C as part of a centennial warming trend, significantly increasing the atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD). These trends are consistent with anthropogenic trends simulated by

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  10. Adapt to more wildfire in western North American forests as climate changes

    Tania Schoennagel, Jennifer K. Balch, Hannah Brenkert–Smith, et al. · 2017 · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · 783 citations

    Wildfires across western North America have increased in number and size over the past three decades, and this trend will continue in response to further warming. As a consequence, the wildland–urban interface is projected to experience substantially higher risk of climate-driven fires in the coming decades. Although many plants, animals, and ecosystem services benefit from fire, it is unknown how ecosystems will respond to increased burning and warming. Policy and management have focused primarily on specified resilience approaches aimed at resistance to wildfire and restoration of areas burned by wildfire through fire suppression and fuels management. These strategies are inadequate to add

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  11. Climate change is increasing the likelihood of extreme autumn wildfire conditions across California

    Michael Goss, Daniel L. Swain, John T. Abatzoglou, et al. · 2020 · Environmental Research Letters · 653 citations

    Abstract California has experienced devastating autumn wildfires in recent years. These autumn wildfires have coincided with extreme fire weather conditions during periods of strong offshore winds coincident with unusually dry vegetation enabled by anomalously warm conditions and late onset of autumn precipitation. In this study, we quantify observed changes in the occurrence and magnitude of meteorological factors that enable extreme autumn wildfires in California, and use climate model simulations to ascertain whether these changes are attributable to human-caused climate change. We show that state-wide increases in autumn temperature (∼1 °C) and decreases in autumn precipitation (∼30%) ov

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  12. Changing wildfire, changing forests: the effects of climate change on fire regimes and vegetation in the Pacific Northwest, USA

    Jessica E. Halofsky, David L. Peterson, Brian J. Harvey · 2020 · Fire Ecology · 639 citations

    Abstract Background Wildfires in the Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and western Montana, USA) have been immense in recent years, capturing the attention of resource managers, fire scientists, and the general public. This paper synthesizes understanding of the potential effects of changing climate and fire regimes on Pacific Northwest forests, including effects on disturbance and stress interactions, forest structure and composition, and post-fire ecological processes. We frame this information in a risk assessment context, and conclude with management implications and future research needs. Results Large and severe fires in the Pacific Northwest are associated with warm and dr

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  15. Projecting impacts of wildfire and climate change on streamflow, sediment, and organic carbon yields in a forested watershed

    D. Loiselle, Xinzhong Du, D. Alessi, et al. · 2020 · Journal of Hydrology · 66 citations

    Abstract Increasing temperatures and irregular precipitation associated with climate change, along with increasing frequency and severity of wildfires, contribute to increased downstream transport of sediment and total organic carbon (TOC), with potential impacts on aquatic ecosystem structure and resilience, recreational use of water bodies, and downstream drinking water treatment. Our study aimed to investigate the effects of both climate change and wildfires on water budget, sediment, and organic carbon by simulating the response of sub-catchments and in-stream processes to changes in future climate and wildfire scenarios. To achieve this, we applied a physical process-based hydrologic mo

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  17. Climate change is narrowing and shifting prescribed fire windows in western United States

    D. L. Swain, J. Abatzoglou, C. Kolden, et al. · 2023 · Communications Earth & Environment · 49 citations

    Escalating wildfire activity in the western United States has accelerated adverse societal impacts. Observed increases in wildfire severity and impacts to communities have diverse anthropogenic causes—including the legacy of fire suppression policies, increased development in high-risk zones, and aridification by a warming climate. However, the intentional use of fire as a vegetation management tool, known as “prescribed fire,” can reduce the risk of destructive fires and restore ecosystem resilience. Prescribed fire implementation is subject to multiple constraints, including the number of days characterized by weather and vegetation conditions conducive to achieving desired outcomes. Here,

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  18. High-severity wildfire potential – associating meteorology, climate, resource demand and wildfire activity with preparedness levels

    Alison C. Cullen, Travis Axe, Harry Podschwit · 2021 · International Journal of Wildland Fire · 26 citations

    National and regional preparedness level (PL) designations support decisions about wildfire risk management. Such decisions occur across the fire season and influence pre-positioning of resources in areas of greatest fire potential, recall of personnel from off-duty status, requests for back-up resources from other areas, responses to requests to share resources with other regions during fire events, and decisions about fuel treatment and risk reduction, such as prescribed burning. In this paper, we assess the association between PLs assigned at national and regional (Northwest) scales and a set of predictors including meteorological and climate variables, wildfire activity and the mobilisat

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  19. Long-term drought promotes invasive species by reducing wildfire severity.

    Sarah Kimball, Jessica Rath, Julie E. Coffey, et al. · 2024 · Ecology · 11 citations

    Anthropogenic climate change has increased the frequency of drought, wildfire, and invasions of non-native species. Although high-severity fires linked to drought can inhibit recovery of native vegetation in forested ecosystems, it remains unclear how drought impacts the recovery of other plant communities following wildfire. We leveraged an existing rainfall manipulation experiment to test the hypothesis that reduced precipitation, fuel load, and fire severity convert plant community composition from native shrubs to invasive grasses in a Southern California coastal sage scrub system. We measured community composition before and after the 2020 Silverado wildfire in plots with three rainfall

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  20. Research Trends in Wildland Fire Prediction Amidst Climate Change: A Comprehensive Bibliometric Analysis

    Ming Bao, Jia-Hao Liu, Hong Ren, et al. · 2024 · Forests · 11 citations

    Wildfire prediction plays a vital role in the management and conservation of forest ecosystems. By providing detailed risk assessments, it contributes to the reduction of fire frequency and severity, safeguards forest resources, supports ecological stability, and ensures human safety. This study systematically reviews wildfire prediction literature from 2003 to 2023, emphasizing research trends and collaborative trends. Our findings reveal a significant increase in research activity between 2019 and 2023, primarily driven by the United States Forest Service and the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The majority of this research was published in prominent journals such as the International Journal

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  23. Assessing burn severity and vegetation restoration in Alberta’s boreal forests following the 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire – a remote sensing time-series study

    Eric Xu, Mary Wei, Tiffany Li, et al. · 2024 · Sustainable Environment · 10 citations

    ABSTRACT Forest fires play a crucial role in resetting boreal ecosystems and steering ecological succession dynamics. However, the escalating impacts of global climate change are anticipated to increase the frequency, intensity, and size of wildfires, leading to significant economic, ecological, and social consequences. To effectively address fire risk and optimize post-fire management strategies, close monitoring, assessment, and understanding of the spatial heterogeneity of wildfires and their impacts are essential. Remote sensing, with its extensive historical records, provides a cost-effective means to examine wildfires. This study focuses on a significant wildfire event that occurred in

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  24. Simulating fuel management for protecting regional biodiversity under climate change.

    E. Marshall, Jessica L. Keem, Trent D. Penman, et al. · 2024 · Journal of environmental management · 8 citations

    Climate change is resulting in larger, more frequent, and more severe wildfires which have increasingly negative impacts on people and the environment. Under these circumstances, it is critical to determine whether fire management actions can mitigate biodiversity impacts under future fire regimes. However, it is currently unclear how changing climate and management interact to influence the spatial distribution of risks to biodiversity. We used fire simulations to quantify the influence of 13 fuel management strategies on animal biodiversity in the Otways, southeastern Australia, under four alternative climate scenarios. Our management strategies include combinations of prescribed burning,

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